Travel Prices Sustain Revenue as Travel Demand Cools in 2026
· aparthotel.com Newsroom · 3 min read
Key takeaways
- Travel-search interest weakened in September while higher airfares and accommodation rates supported revenue.
- U.S. travel spending is forecast to fall 0.7% in 2026 despite a record 2.44 billion domestic trips.
- International inbound spending is forecast to decline 6.3% to $163 billion in 2026.
The Fall 2026 U.S. Travel Forecast expects inflation-adjusted travel spending to decline by 0.7% in 2026 before returning to growth in 2027. Taken together, the reports show a market where prices are cushioning weaker travel interest.
Demand and prices
Skift’s Travel Health Index stood at 99 in September 2026, down 1% from a year earlier. The destinations index, which measures travel interest through online search activity, fell 12% to 88 as inbound flight and hotel searches weakened across most tracked markets.
Skift also reported that fewer travelers say they plan to travel. Higher airfares and accommodation rates are supporting revenue as traveler interest cools, according to Skift.
The numbers
Skift and U.S. Travel supplied the following figures:
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Skift Travel Health Index, September 2026 | 99, down 1% year on year |
| Skift destinations index, September 2026 | 88, down 12% year on year |
| U.S. total travel spending, 2026 | $1.35 trillion, down 0.7% |
| U.S. domestic trips, 2026 | 2.44 billion |
| U.S. domestic travel by air, 2026 | Down 0.8% |
| U.S. domestic travel by car and other modes, 2026 | Up 1.9% |
U.S. spending outlook
U.S. Travel forecasts that Americans will take a record 2.44 billion domestic trips in 2026, but spending growth, led by gasoline and airfares, will outpace trip growth. Total inflation-adjusted travel spending is projected to fall from $1.36 trillion in 2025 to $1.35 trillion in 2026, then rise to $1.38 trillion in 2027. Spending growth is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2027 and accelerate to about 3% a year from 2028 through 2030 as price pressures ease.
Domestic travel accounts for 88% of total U.S. travel spending, and U.S. Travel expects it to reach $1.19 trillion in 2026 before returning fully to its inflation-adjusted 2019 level in 2027. Domestic leisure spending is forecast to remain essentially flat in 2026, rising 0.1% to $902 billion, before growth resumes at 2.1% in 2027. It is the only segment with spending above its inflation-adjusted 2019 level.
Travel spending is being supported disproportionately by higher-income households, while lower- and middle-income households face pressure from higher gasoline prices and economic uncertainty, according to U.S. Travel. The forecast uses Tourism Economics’ travel forecasting model and presents spending in inflation-adjusted 2025 dollars.
Booking and market shifts
U.S. Travel expects domestic air-trip volumes to decline 0.8% in 2026, while trips by car and other modes rise 1.9% and overnight trips grow 1.9%. Domestic group travel is expected to be the strongest business segment in 2026, with meeting planners reporting greater optimism and expecting to hold more meetings this year.
International inbound spending is projected to decline 6.3% to $163 billion in 2026, following a 2.0% fall to $174 billion in 2025. This is the second consecutive annual decline. Inbound visits are forecast to decline 0.7% to 67.8 million in 2026 and are not expected to reach the 2019 level of 79 million until 2030.
The market declines are uneven. The forecast also states that the 2026 World Cup did not provide enough additional inbound arrivals to offset the broader decline in visitors.
The United States is also losing share of the global long-haul market.
The next dated step in the forecast is 2027, when total U.S. travel spending is projected to rise 2.3%, domestic leisure spending is expected to grow 2.1% and international inbound spending is forecast to grow 2.8%.
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Sources
- Prices Prop Up Travel as Demand Cools — skift.com, 2026-11-10
- U.S. Travel Forecast (2026-11-05) — ustravel.org, 2026-11-05
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